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Up and Away?

While the ten-year return is still slightly negative, over the last 12-months the S&P 500 was up just under 39%. The 70% run-up from the lows of early March are fueling optimism. Just not around here. We’re planning on slimming down our stock stakes soon. As dyed in the wool contrarians, we prefer when stocks seem to have nowhere to go but down.

March 2010 Performance Review

Stocks are heating up. February’s roughly 3% return was doubled in March with a 6% increase in the S&P 500. Tech stocks logged in another market-beating month as the Nasdaq rose 7.14%, eclipsed by even hotter small-cap stocks which took the Russell 2000 up 8.14%. It’s as if everybody started getting sick of low yields on cash and CDs all at once. Most stock fund categories performed close to the S&P 500 in March.

April Fools?

Are investors who buy stocks now April fools? Stocks are definitely more expensive than they were during the financial panic, but they're cheaper than they were right before it started, back when the Dow tipped the scales at 14,000.

February 2010 Performance Review

In February the S&P 500 rebounded 3.09%, erasing most of January’s decline and leaving the index down 0.61% for the year (though still up some 53% for the last twelve months – a period starting at about the bottom of the market during the financial panic). Our average model portfolio is essentially flat, down 0.05% for these first two months of 2010.

Inflation (or Lack Thereof)

Inexplicably, investors are more afraid of runaway inflation than depressions or panics, although both have occurred more frequently in our nation’s economic history. Even during this last face-off with possible depression, most investors were more concerned about inflation than deflation, perhaps the main symptom of an economic depression

January 2010 Performance Review

Just about everything that went up faster in the comeback slipped harder in January. The Nasdaq slid 5.37% (though small caps were down 3.68%) more in line with the larger caps in the S&P500. Interest rates dipped down with long term treasuries returning about 2.5% for the month. Surprisingly, high-yield junk bonds were up for the month, bucking the overall trend of the meek doing better in January.

Buy High, Sell Low, Pro Edition

January was the first real down month since the market recovery began on March 9, 2009. In January, an investment in the Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX), which owns the stocks in the S&P 500 and includes dividends along with (ultra low) fund expenses, would have returned a negative 3.6%. The only other interruption during the strong comeback was a 1.87% drop in October 2009.

December 2009 Performance Review

Normally when the S&P 500 goes pretty much straight up in a short period of time, as it has since the early March lows, we would expect to underperform because our portfolios tend to have some bonds or cash weighting them down, a performance gap we tend to makeup during the next downturn or as our out-of-favor funds start to beat the market. 

2009 – A Tale of Two Markets

For stocks, 2009 was the best of times and the worst of times. It was the end of an Age of Foolishness, but unlikely the dawn of an Age of Wisdom. 

Revamped Our Favorite Funds List

Please check out our newly revamped and updated Our Favorite Funds section. In it you'll find a complete list of our single favorite fund in each of 24 fund categories, as well as our favorite exchange traded fund, low minimum, and no transaction fee options for each category.

Give it a look by clicking here, and if you have a minute let us know what you think.