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March 2010 Performance Review

April 19, 2010

The Conservative Portfolio jumped 2.53% in March.

Stocks are heating up. February’s roughly 3% return was doubled in March with a 6% increase in the S&P 500. Tech stocks logged in another market-beating month as the Nasdaq rose 7.14%, eclipsed by even hotter small-cap stocks which took the Russell 2000 up 8.14%. It’s as if everybody started getting sick of low yields on cash and CDs all at once. Most stock fund categories performed close to the S&P 500 in March.

The only real loser was longer term government bonds, which fell about 1.86%, and are now down just over 6% for the last twelve months (though the three, five, and ten year return on long term government bonds remains way ahead of the stock market). High yield bonds continued to perform well with a roughly 3% rise while the total bond market was down fractionally.

In our opinion, the Fed needs to raise rates before this current heat in asset prices turns into another bubble. The trouble is that while the economy has turned the corner it could actually still benefit from more low rates. But how does the Fed stimulate the real economy without cranking up asset bubbles once again? 

Bill Gross eked out a slight gain over the total bond index once again with a 0.55% return in March. He’s been cutting way back on government bonds -which right now is helping his returns, but will hurt if we see the economy stumble anew. Most of these total bond funds are beating the indexes with bigger stakes in corporate and high yield (junk) bonds, categories that are beating safer government bonds hands downs in recent months.

Telecom stocks were slightly ahead of the market with a 6.56% rise in Vanguard Telecom ETF (VOX).

The Aggressive Portfolio jumped 4.93% in March.

Stocks are heating up. February’s roughly 3% return was doubled in March with a 6% increase in the S&P 500. Tech stocks logged in another market-beating month as the Nasdaq rose 7.14%, eclipsed by even hotter small-cap stocks which took the Russell 2000 up 8.14%. It’s as if everybody started getting sick of low yields on cash and CDs all at once. Most stock fund categories performed close to the S&P 500 in March.

The only real loser was longer term government bonds, which fell about 1.86%, and are now down just over 6% for the last twelve months (though the three, five, and ten year return on long term government bonds remains way ahead of the stock market). High yield bonds continued to perform well with a roughly 3% rise while the total bond market was down fractionally.

In our opinion, the Fed needs to raise rates before this current heat in asset prices turns into another bubble. The trouble is that while the economy has turned the corner it could actually still benefit from more low rates. But how does the Fed stimulate the real economy without cranking up asset bubbles once again? 

Bill Gross eked out a slight gain over the total bond index once again with a 0.55% return in March. He’s been cutting way back on government bonds -which right now is helping his returns, but will hurt if we see the economy stumble anew. Most of these total bond funds are beating the indexes with bigger stakes in corporate and high yield (junk) bonds, categories that are beating safer government bonds hands downs in recent months.

Telecom stocks were slightly ahead of the market with a 6.56% rise in Vanguard Telecom ETF (VOX).

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