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Rings of Fear

August certainly didn’t seem like a month that would end better than it began. The S&P 500 was up just over 1% - not exactly a barnburner, but given the turmoil in July and early August, nothing short of a miracle - and certainly the result of some sort of divine intervention. That divine intervention involved no less a deity than the Chairman of the Federal Reserve himself, who in mid-August reversed what appeared to be a true stock market death spiral

Forbes Honor Roll

Forbes just published its list of 'Honor Roll' funds for 2007, and while there's not a real stinker in the bunch – this is no buy list. Here are the funds that made the cut, along with our MAXrating for each one:

Bruce Fund (BRUFX) MAXrating: 84
Delafield Fund (DEFIX) MAXrating: 63
Keeley Small Cap Value (KSCVX) MAXrating: 68
Mairs & Power Growth Fund (MPGFX) MAXrating: 80
Muhlenkamp Fund (MUHLX) MAXrating: 61
Osterweis Fund (OSTFX) MAXrating: 77
Perritt MicroCap Opportunities (PRCGX) MAXrating: 93
Stratton Small-Cap Value (STSCX) MAXrating: 70
Third Avenue Value (TAVFX) MAXrating: 85
Value Line Emerging Opportunities (VLEOX) MAXrating: 93

According to Forbes, to get on the Honor Roll "contenders must pass a number of stringent tests. The managers must have been on the job for at least six years; a newbie can't ride on the boffo showing of his predecessor. We also want portfolio diversification. Thus sector funds don't get in. And a fund must be open to new investors." Forbes also looks at how well funds have done through past up and down markets.

But like all top fund lists, this one has its share of problems...

Ask MAX: You call THIS a MAXadvisor Favorite?

08/27/07 - Ask MAX

Russ Asks:

You call the Vanguard Precious Metals & Mining Fund (VGPMX) a MAXadvisor Favorite Fund, but it has a MAXoutlook of -16%. Why do you call a fund a MAXadvisor Favorite if you think it is going to perform so poorly in the next year?"

How can we like and hate the same fund? We’re not bipolar – here’s how it works:

We give MAXadvisor Favorite honors to at least one fund in every stock fund category. No matter how well we think a category is going to do , we'll try and find the best funds available to you. You'll find a Favorite Fund listed in some categories we think are currently a very bad place to be invested - categories like real estate, Latin America, and yes, precious metals.

Our MAXoutlook is our forecast for a fund’s performance over the next twelve months. This figure is largely driven by our forecast for the fund’s category, the fund’s quality and fees, and the fund’s risk level. Safer funds generally don’t have big negative forecasts even if the category ranks poorly.

August 2007 Trade Alert!

The recent market troubles have shown the shortcomings of funds that short. In addition to dropping high yield bonds (which have since fallen), we cut back on “normal” long-only stock funds in this portfolio in our last trade at the end of June. Because the stock market was getting overvalued we went with a long short fund because in theory investors would have a little less downside than a stock fund.

MAXadvisor Powerfund Portfolios Update

Note to subscribers of the MAXadvisor Powerfund Portfolios: this month's portfolio performance data update and commentary has been posted. Subscribers can log in by clicking here.

The MAXadvisor Powerfund Portfolios is a collection of seven model mutual fund portfolios ranging in risk from very safe to quite aggressive. Each portfolio is made up of a group of terrific, no-load, low-cost mutual funds that are carefully chosen to work together to lower volatility and increase returns. You can learn more about the MAXadvisor Powerfund Portfolios (and sign up for a free trial if you like what you see) by clicking here.

july 2007 performance review

So far, August is among the strangest month for fund investors since before we started MAXfunds.com in 1999. In fact, it’s in one of the strangest months since we first got into the mutual fund business over 15 years ago…certainly up there with the Asian contagion, the Russian bond default, the dot com crash, and the junk bond crash.

It's Not All Sub-Prime's Fault

08/17/07 - Sub Prime Woes

Sure, the sub-prime mortgage mess played a big part in this week's wild market gyrations, but it wasn't the only factor. Charley Blaine at MSN Money says there's plenty of blame to go around, and points the finger at hedge funds, quant models, even the securities and exchange commission.

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