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March 2011 Performance Review

April 4, 2011

With an almost perfectly flat S&P 500 in March, you’d almost think the month was a dull one on Wall Street. Hardly. By the middle of the month the S&P 500 was down about 8% from the close in February, largely due to a massive natural and manmade disaster in Japan (a market that itself was down almost 20% from the levels in February). Though Japan only partially rebounded, the S&P 500 ended the month back where it started.

Benchmark Vanguard index funds for March:  500 Index (VFINX) up 0.03%, Total Bond Market (VBMFX) down -0.01%, International Index (VTMGX) down: -2.59%. Our Conservative portfolio was up 0.23% while our Aggressive portfolio gained 1.76%. The Aggressive Portfolio was among our best outperformance of the global bond and stock market in quite a while – largely attributed to a strong showing in utilities, telecom, healthcare, and smaller cap stocks

The United States in general was were you wanted to invest in March, with top areas being healthcare and smaller cap stocks, though energy related stocks also did well. The best area overall was emerging markets with their complete lack of Japanese stocks, climbing about 5% in contrast to international indexes that were down 2.6%.

Technology stocks, which have led the markets over much of the rebound, were tepid. Bonds were flat across the board with Emerging Markets bonds doing the best and inflation protected bonds rebounding.

In portfolio fund action last month:

  • Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (VOX) climbed 3.72% in March, beating than the S&P 500 by 3.7%.
  • Small Cap Growth fund Janus Triton T (JATTX) rose 3.53% in March while even smaller cap Satuit Capital Micro Cap (SATMX) was up 2.75% in March.
  • Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) climbed 1.79%, similar to American Century Utility Income (BULIX), which delivered 1.77% for the month - another strong category relative to the broad stock market.
  • Scout International Discovery (UMBDX) increased 1.21% in March, far more than the over 2% slide in international stocks, due partially to a decent chunk of the fund being invested in smaller cap and emerging markets and a slightly lower than typical Japan stock allocation.
  • Our Large Cap Growth fund PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth (POGRX) increased 0.92%, better than the S&P 500 by 0.9%.
  • With oil talking off along with many commodities our Long/Short fund PowerShares DB Commodity Dble (DEE) sank -8.00% in March. 
  • The US dollar wasn’t as strong as we’d expect with global problems. Our alternative fund PowerShares DB US Dollar Index (UUP) fell -1.36% in March, worse than the S&P 500 by -1.4%.
  • Without any Japan stocks, Vanguard European ETF (VGK) fell just -1.03% last month, better than most international funds or an international index.
  • Parnassus Equity Income (PRBLX) slipped -0.65% in March, worse than the S&P 500 by -0.7%.
  • Large Cap Growth fund PRIMECAP Odyssey Stock (POSKX) slipped -0.60% in March, worse than the S&P 500 by -0.6%, which is odd because our more aggressive PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth (POGRX) stock fund was up for the month. One reason for the gap is Odyssey Growth is a little more smaller cap oriented and smaller cap stocks did well last month.
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