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february 2007 performance review

March 17, 2007

Gulp. In our portfolio commentary from just four weeks ago, we said that "the market continues its heady ascent," and "if this keeps up unabated, it probably won’t end well.” A few days later, the Dow plummeted more than 500 points in just a few hours before partially recovering later in the day. After climbing back, it took another 250 point drop this past week. Nevertheless, due to big gains earlier in the year, the Dow is only down about 2%. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 (small cap index) are also all down for the year.

Thanks to our above-average cash and bond stakes (Daredevil portfolio aside), all of our model portfolios are showing slight gains through the end of February. However, that's not to say that our stock funds are suffering in comparison, as many of them are doing fine as well.

Investors finally got scared in February. Suddenly the idea of paying higher and higher prices for riskier "alternative" investments like REITs (real estate investment trusts), commodities, emerging market bonds, and stocks  no longer seemed like a sound investment strategy.

While this abrupt market pullback has made stocks more appealing, we’re watching for more fund sales to increase our stock positions . Stay tuned - it could happen shortly.

Our second-best performer, the Conservative portfolio, was up 0.58% in February as a general feeling of impending economic doom led to lower interest rates and bond prices rose in response.

Harbor Bond (HABDX) was also up 1.74% for the month as manager Bill Gross appeared to have successfully predicted yet another rate decline.

American Century International Bond (BEGBX) was up strong at 2.36% as the U.S. dollar continued to sink. We don’t expect a great deal of dollar weakness going forward, however, especially with interest rates going down.

When stocks sink, funds like Bridgeway Balanced (BRBPX) that utilize options demonstrate their low-risk benefits. The fund was down just 0.24% in the same month that the Dow was down over 2%.

One of our newer holdings, Janus Global Research (JARFX), somehow only fell 0.30% in February even though the fund is 98% invested in stocks. Perhaps that's due to its heavy weighting in large-cap "safer" foreign stocks, which did well in February in comparison to the rest of the world. Other stock funds like Vanguard U.S. Value, down 2.27%, and  Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35, down 3.19%, weren’t so fortunate.

Healthcare stocks generally fare well when the economy turns south, but that didn’t stop them from getting hit right along with the rest of the market this time. Health Care Select SPDR (XLV), our exchange-traded healthcare fund, was down 2.29%, right in line with the rest of the market.

In a market where investors are moving away from risk, sub-investment grade "junk" bonds had a surprisingly strong showing in February. Once again, falling interest rates drove up most bond prices, regardless of their rating. Vanguard High Yield Corporate (VWEHX) returned 1.51% in February, but we do not expect that level of success to last.

Gulp. In our portfolio commentary from just four weeks ago, we said that "the market continues its heady ascent," and "if this keeps up unabated, it probably won’t end well.” A few days later, the Dow plummeted more than 500 points in just a few hours before partially recovering later in the day. After climbing back, it took another 250 point drop this past week. Nevertheless, due to big gains earlier in the year, the Dow is only down about 2%. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 (small cap index) are also all down for the year.

Thanks to our above-average cash and bond stakes (Daredevil portfolio aside), all of our model portfolios are showing slight gains through the end of February. However, that's not to say that our stock funds are suffering in comparison, as many of them are doing fine as well.

Investors finally got scared in February. Suddenly the idea of paying higher and higher prices for riskier "alternative" investments like REITs (real estate investment trusts), commodities, emerging market bonds, and stocks  no longer seemed like a sound investment strategy.

While this abrupt market pullback has made stocks more appealing, we’re watching for more fund sales to increase our stock positions . Stay tuned - it could happen shortly.

Our Growth portfolio was down slightly (0.52%) in  February as stock declines cancelled out gains on the bond side, but that's not too bad compared to the 2%+ drops in the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq.

American Century International Bond (BEGBX) was up strong at 2.36% as the U.S. dollar continued to sink. We don’t expect a great deal of dollar weakness going forward, however, especially with interest rates still going down.

Japan bucked the downward trend in stocks (for now…) with a 1.27% gain in our T. Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) fund. We recently upgraded Japan following a year of poor performance.

Buffalo Mid Cap (BUFMX) scored a 0.71% return in an otherwise down market, partially due to its pre-minicrash (early February) strength in small-cap stocks.

When stocks sink, funds like Bridgeway Balanced (BRBPX) that utilize options demonstrate their low-risk benefits. The fund was down just 0.24% in the same month that the Dow was down over 2%.

Healthcare stocks generally fare well when the economy turns south, but that didn’t stop them from getting hit right along with the rest of the market this time. Health Care Select SPDR (XLV), our exchange-traded healthcare fund, was down 2.29%, right in line with the rest of the market.

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