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March 2007 performance review

April 16, 2007

The Conservative Portfolio climbed 0.46% in March.The market has shrugged off February's sharp drop as though it were just a moment of baseless anxiety. We’re not in the camp that thinks that all systems are go and the real estate slowdown is only going to have minimal repercussions on the economy. We’d be more enthusiastic if stocks were lower – or if fund investors were less optimistic.

In March, the Dow gained 0.84%, the S&P 500 was up 1.12%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.23%. Bonds were weak, with longer-term bonds losing around 1% due to rising interest rates. Each of our model portfolios climbed higher in March, and they're all up over 1% for the year through the end of March. The Dow is down slightly, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose (0.59% and 0.26%, respectively) over the same three-month period. Of course, a 1% increase is nothing to brag about, but it’s worth noting that our portfolios usually outperform the market when it's rocky or flat. When it's going gangbusters, the bond funds in our well-balanced Powerfund Portfolios may hold them back a bit, even as many of our stock funds are beating the market.Harbor Bond (HABDX) managed to eke out a 0.06% return in an otherwise lousy month for bonds. In general, shorter-term bonds have fared better than their longer-term counterparts whose lower yields will really only benefit portfolios if interest rates sink even lower.

We expected newly-hatched Janus Global Research (JARFX) to perform well early on, and it's hasn't disappointed us. As our best performer, the fund gained about 3% in March and is up 6.57% for the year (in contrast to the S&P 500, which is up less than 1%). In fact, the fund has risen over 11% since we added it to the portfolio late last year, but we don’t think that this success is based on Janus' brilliant stock-picking. The streak is partly due to decent stock selection, and partly to its global allocation, with some favored sectors now heating up. Janus is probably also taking special care of this fund (best ideas, first allocation before bigger funds buy in, IPOs, etc.) to build a marketable track record. More power to them. We’ll kindly deplane when the press and their loyal performance-chasing disciples get wind of the fund's exaggerated early performance. Performance history rarely repeats itself.

We expected Healthcare Select SPDR (XLV) to deliver better returns in recent months given the huge comeback by beaten-down drug giant Merck (MRK), a top fund holding. Unfortunately, other healthcare stocks are not on such a hot streak. The ETF was up 0.25% in March, and 0.91% over the last three months.

In March, international stocks (other than Japan) outperformed U.S. markets again – though safer stocks led the way. Our diversified international picks beat the S&P 500 - SSgA International Growth Opportunities (SINGX) and Vanguard International Value (VTRIX) were up 1.13% and 2.24%, respectively. 

The Aggressive Growth Portfolio climbed 0.68% in March.The market has shrugged off February's sharp drop as though it were just a moment of baseless anxiety. We’re not in the camp that thinks that all systems are go and the real estate slowdown is only going to have minimal repercussions on the economy. We’d be more enthusiastic if stocks were lower – or if fund investors were less optimistic.

In March, the Dow gained 0.84%, the S&P 500 was up 1.12%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.23%. Bonds were weak, with longer-term bonds losing around 1% due to rising interest rates. Each of our model portfolios climbed higher in March, and they're all up over 1% for the year through the end of March. The Dow is down slightly, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose (0.59% and 0.26%, respectively) over the same three-month period. Of course, a 1% increase is nothing to brag about, but it’s worth noting that our portfolios usually outperform the market when it's rocky or flat. When it's going gangbusters, the bond funds in our well-balanced Powerfund Portfolios may hold them back a bit, even as many of our stock funds are beating the market.T. Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) was one of our only portfolio holdings to drop in March. Most Japan stocks have been getting back in line with the rest of the world stock markets. Last year, Japan was one of the only weak areas (which was almost expected, given the preceding year’s hot performance). A strong 2005 attracted some investors who were happy to see Japan finally climb out of its decade-plus funk. We’d consider adding on any relative weakness. 

We expected newly-hatched Janus Global Research (JARFX) to perform well early on, and it's hasn't disappointed us. As our best performer, the fund gained about 3% in March and is up 6.57% for the year (in contrast to the S&P 500, which is up less than 1%). In fact, the fund has risen over 11% since we added it to the portfolio late last year, but we don’t think that this success is based on Janus' brilliant stock-picking. The streak is partly due to decent stock selection, and partly to its global allocation, with some favored sectors now heating up. Janus is probably also taking special care of this fund (best ideas, first allocation before bigger funds buy in, IPOs, etc.) to build a marketable track record. More power to them. We’ll kindly deplane when the press and their loyal performance-chasing disciples get wind of the fund's exaggerated early performance. Performance history rarely repeats itself.

We expected Healthcare Select SPDR (XLV) to deliver better returns in recent months given the huge comeback by beaten-down drug giant Merck (MRK), a top fund holding. Unfortunately, other healthcare stocks are not on such a hot streak. The ETF was up 0.25% in March, and 0.91% over the last three months.

Harbor Bond (HABDX) managed to eke out a 0.06% return in an otherwise lousy month for bonds. In general, shorter-term bonds have fared better than their longer-term counterparts whose lower yields will really only benefit portfolios if interest rates sink even lower.

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