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january 2008 performance review

February 15, 2008

The Conservative Portfolio dipped -0.77% in January.

This January was one of the worst Januarys for stocks on record. The S&P 500 was down around 6%, the Nasdaq about 10%, and small cap stocks fell 6.8%. International stocks were down about 9%. And this was after a fairly dramatic turnaround for stocks in late January. The only solace was in longer-term government bonds, which scored a 2.5% total return. Bonds in general were up 1.5%, though higher risk bonds were weak again.

All of our Powerfund Portfolios outperformed the major stock indexes in January – except Daredevil, down just a bit more than the Dow’s 4.5% drop. While our relative performance was good, most of our portfolios, save Safety, were still off significantly. We expect to clock another year beating the S&P 500 by increasing our stock fund allocations as the market continues to weaken.

Investor’s unease should increase as government officials fumble about trying to fix a broken housing market by any means necessary. The best thing the stock market has going for it is that fund investors are running to the safety of money market funds, and fund investors as a group tend to be wrong.

Bill Gross – Mr. Negative on the White House and economy – is starting off 2008 on a strong note. Harbor Bond (HABDX) was up 3.02% in January – the shining star of all of our holdings in this rough month.

Newly added Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) didn’t protect us as much as we would have liked in the down market, falling 4.25% in January. Financials had a bit of a bounce in January, which probably hurt as the fund has been short financials. Tech stocks in the portfolio added to the problems.

Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) didn’t offer us the recession fear stability we were looking for with a 4.86% drop. There has been some trouble lately in the pharmaceuticals sector, and in general this idea of owning healthcare in a down economy was a little too popular.

Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) fell a little more than the S&P 500, down 7.92%, which given the Nasdaq’s recent returns is not too bad. Large cap growth stocks outpaced the market in 2007 and were due for a dip. Compared to small cap stocks, it was still a decent showing.

What goes up fast during good markets often falls hard in down markets. Janus Global Research (JARFX) slid 7.44% in January as the global part of the equation weighed on the fund. We noted last month our increasing negativity on foreign stocks.

The Aggressive Portfolio dropped -2.95% in January.

This January was one of the worst Januarys for stocks on record. The S&P 500 was down around 6%, the Nasdaq about 10%, and small cap stocks fell 6.8%. International stocks were down about 9%. And this was after a fairly dramatic turnaround for stocks in late January. The only solace was in longer-term government bonds, which scored a 2.5% total return. Bonds in general were up 1.5%, though higher risk bonds were weak again.

All of our Powerfund Portfolios outperformed the major stock indexes in January – except Daredevil, down just a bit more than the Dow’s 4.5% drop. While our relative performance was good, most of our portfolios, save Safety, were still off significantly. We expect to clock another year beating the S&P 500 by increasing our stock fund allocations as the market continues to weaken.

Investor’s unease should increase as government officials fumble about trying to fix a broken housing market by any means necessary. The best thing the stock market has going for it is that fund investors are running to the safety of money market funds, and fund investors as a group tend to be wrong.

Newly added Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) didn’t protect us as much as we would have liked in the down market, falling 4.25% in January. Financials had a bit of a bounce in January, which probably hurt as the fund has been short financials. Tech stocks in the portfolio added to the problems.

Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) didn’t offer us the recession fear stability we were looking for with a 4.86% drop. There has been some trouble lately in the pharmaceuticals sector, and in general this idea of owning healthcare in a down economy was a little too popular.

Tech stocks were among the weakest in the market last month, and our sector ETF here, Technology SPDR (XLK) fell just under 12% in January.

Bill Gross – Mr. Negative on the White House and economy – is starting off 2008 on a strong note. Harbor Bond (HABDX) was up 3.02% in January – the shining star of all of our holdings in this rough month.

Given the aversion to risk in the market lately and big drop in the Nasdaq, we were a bit surprised SPDR Biotech (XBI) only fell 5.33% in January. This is proving to be the one area investors are comfortable with the high risk levels.

What goes up fast during good markets often falls hard in down markets. Janus Global Research (JARFX) slid 7.44% in January as the global part of the equation weighed on the fund. We noted last month our increasing negativity on foreign stocks.

Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) fell a little more than the S&P 500, down 7.92%, which given the Nasdaq’s recent returns is not too bad. Large cap growth stocks outpaced the market in 2007 and were due for a dip. Compared to small cap stocks, it was still a decent showing.

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