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may 2008 performance review

June 17, 2008

The Conservative Portfolio climbed 0.24% in May.

In May the hope that the worst was behind us in the mortgage crisis and in financials evaporated. Financial SPDR (XLF) – the financial sector ETF – was down 6.08% in May, while the KBW Bank ETF was down almost 8%. Oddly, REITs (real estate investment trusts) bucked the trend with a slight increase in the category as a whole, as investors continue to think this part of the real estate market won’t sink much more than it already has.

Stocks in general started strong in May then faded, and the weakness that continued into early June. For the month, the Dow was down 1.11%, the S&P 500 was up 1.3%, the small-cap Russell 2000 climbed 4.59%, and the Nasdaq gained 4.55%. 

Bonds continued to slide as interest rates climbed on growing inflation fears. Long-term government bonds – about the most interest rate sensitive – were down just over 2% for the month, while the total bond index was down 0.73%.

Hot areas last month included Latin America, biotech, precious metals, telecom, natural resources, growth in general, and small-cap stocks.

All of our model portfolios posted gains except for our bond heavy Safety portfolio, but none beat the S&P 500 except the Daredevil portfolio. For the year to date, all of our model portfolios are beating the S&P 500 except for Daredevil.

With a -0.74% return in May, Harbor Bond (HABDX) performed similar to the broad bond market, helped along by higher-yield bonds but hurt by rising rates in general.

Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) recovered ever so slightly in May with a 0.33% gain. We’re going to have to see energy and commodity related stocks tank for this fund – which has heavy short positions - to make big gains relative to the market. 

Bridgeway Balanced (BRBPX) had an unusually strong month with a 2.29% return. The pop wasn’t from the bonds in the portfolio. Increased stock market volatility in recent months has caused higher option premiums, yet with the stock market not closing far from market prices in place when options where written, the fund gets increased premium income with fewer costs and missed opportunity associated with rising stock prices.

Healthcare stocks stopped underperforming in May – though some drug stocks are near multiyear lows. Healthcare Select SPDR (XLV) was up 1.95% for the month. 

Growth stocks lead the market with a 3.7% gain in Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG).

The Aggressive Portfolio climbed 0.96% in May.

In May the hope that the worst was behind us in the mortgage crisis and in financials evaporated. Financial SPDR (XLF) – the financial sector ETF – was down 6.08% in May, while the KBW Bank ETF was down almost 8%. Oddly, REITs (real estate investment trusts) bucked the trend with a slight increase in the category as a whole, as investors continue to think this part of the real estate market won’t sink much more than it already has.

Stocks in general started strong in May then faded, and the weakness that continued into early June. For the month, the Dow was down 1.11%, the S&P 500 was up 1.3%, the small-cap Russell 2000 climbed 4.59%, and the Nasdaq gained 4.55%. 

Bonds continued to slide as interest rates climbed on growing inflation fears. Long-term government bonds – about the most interest rate sensitive – were down just over 2% for the month, while the total bond index was down 0.73%.

Hot areas last month included Latin America, biotech, precious metals, telecom, natural resources, growth in general, and small-cap stocks.

All of our model portfolios posted gains except for our bond heavy Safety portfolio, but none beat the S&P 500 except the Daredevil portfolio. For the year to date, all of our model portfolios are beating the S&P 500 except for Daredevil.

Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) recovered ever so slightly in May with a 0.33% gain. We’re going to have to see energy and commodity related stocks tank for this fund – which has heavy short positions - to make big gains relative to the market. 

Bridgeway Blue Chip 35 index (BRLIX) was flat for the month, returning somewhere between the Dow and the S&P 500. Although stocks in general were up in May, the big-cap banks in this fund were a drag on performance, much like the Dow.

Healthcare stocks stopped underperforming in May – though some drug stocks are near multiyear lows. Healthcare Select SPDR (XLV) was up 1.95% for the month. 

Tech stocks continued a strong comeback. Technology SPDR (XLK) was up 5.23%.

 With a -0.74% return in May, Harbor Bond (HABDX) performed similar to the broad bond market, helped along by higher-yield bonds but hurt by rising rates in general. 

Biotech stocks have done well relative to the market, though the sector had a scary drop even harder than the market early this year. Last month the rebound continued with SPDR Biotech (XBI), up 7.33%.  Some of this was Genentech’s (DNA) rebound from a big drop in April although this ETF is not market-cap weighted so other biotech stocks were hot as well.

Growth stocks lead the market with a 3.7% gain in Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG).

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